Comment by csomar | Hacker News Reader

Comment by csomar | Hacker News Reader

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I have a different take: We were in a recession in the last 10 years. We are just turning around for the real bull-run. Interest rates just started to go up. If we were in a heated run, they should reach the double digits. We are probably 4-6 years away from that.

It is a good time to invest but probably a bad time to leverage as interest is going higher. The right time to leverage was a few years ago. Interest was cheap back then. Remember buy low sell high? Looks like everyone was freaking out back then and waiting for the "recession".

We are being far from a heated global economy and given how globalized and inter-connected the world did get in the last 10 years, the world wide economy might affect the US more than its own.

No this it is not different this time. But probably the baseline of your "recession" and "bubble" got re-adjusted for the new realities.

What's your rationale for this? Beyond interest rates, which are clearly the result of more aggressive, far larger-scale easing by central banks than we've ever seen before.

P/E ratios in the USA are more favorable than many emerging countries. Given how expensive some of these countries got; and how shitty they are still are they'll need to correct. They still make very decent money even though they are well below the US or the western world on a per capita basis.

The rich of these countries will need to flock somewhere. While you might think that the prices of the USA stock market is high, these guys will find the deal favorable to what they have in their own countries.

It is not only Turkey that seeing the correction. Many countries in North Africa, South America, SEA, Russia, South Africa are getting squeezed. You'll be surprised at how much money is looking to leave these countries and settle shop somewhere safe.

You just need a passport and a tourist visa to open a bank account in the US. Moving your business there is pretty straightforward if you have enough turnover and will to pay some taxes.

I strongly agree that capital flight is a huge and under-recognized driver of high asset values in the US (particularly equities and real estate).

But how do you even begin to estimate the rate of this effect, or how much further it might go, or what asset classes it might affect? For example: this was likely a major force in the surge in Bitcoin value almost a year ago, but that asset has since collapsed; will a similar effect take place in other assets?

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