Sure, but that's like saying Yellowstone is going to erupt.
That's enough for me.
Can I make the bet you describe for, say, seven years? I’d say five is highly likely to suffice but I’d rather play it safe.
Yep. Hence "if few is three" earlier.
I'm not interested in a bet. I'm interested in adjusting my priors. Thanks for the help.
If you’re not interested in a bet, why did you reply to me to ask if I’ve made one?