Hacker News Reader

Comment by overcast | Hacker News Reader

That's what happens when you screw over the general public in a giant pump and dump. There is just no more money left to steal. First time was for the early adopters at $1000, second time was for the late majority at $19,000. You're not going to see that happen again.

View on HN

"You're not going to see that happen again."

I've heard that during the last 4 bear markets. Give it some years it always comes back stronger to absorb fresh money

I know the feeling, but at one point you gotta stop repeating the same thing forever. Bitcoin is not a new thing that will repeat 1000% growth.

You are aware Apple was worth $1tn as a company? $150bn more or less in the grand scheme of things isn't a lot of money, which is about the size of the crypto market.

I just don't see banks and institutions (i.e. Nasdaq and Vanguard) building out crypto capabilities to then not use them. They'll market the hell out of them at some point, and the cycle will repeat.

> I just don't see banks and institutions (i.e. Nasdaq and Vanguard) building out crypto capabilities to then not use them

Let me start by saying that I agree there will be a repeat. But, the assertion that companies build some capability to always use them is wrong. What companies did was look into a hype cycle and bought into it as the next "cool thing". After sometime they will forget it even exists. And move on to the next "cool thing".

Orange/Apple IMO

That said I forgot banks were working on crypto currencies. Still I'm tired of bitcoiners ~analysis. Enjoy your ride

Financial markets retract. Doesn't mean its a pump-and-dump.

What about $35 and $250?

At $250 I was explaining to my parents what bitcoin is. At $19,000 I was overhearing Starbucks baristas talk about it.

At $10k, car service mechanics were buying into random cryptocoins. Nobody understood them, everyone just wanted to get rich. A speculative asset, not a currency.

But what could we have done about it? It's unfair to be liked by fools. The core idea is still interesting to experiment and explore but now it's tainted by greed.

Many of the core ideas (well, all of them or almost none, depending on what you consider the core idea) could have been implemented with regulatory instruments in place that optimize for stable prices/controlled inflation instead of being effectively deflatory, similar to how regular currencies do it. Anything that does not will either fail in other ways or be loved to death as a value store/greater fool game. The two can never be torn apart.

The problem is if they were implemented with regulatory instruments and whatnot, they would share their critical weakness. If tomorrow China says 'we know your banking computer systems are insecure and have no integrity. We do not trust that the numbers on them represent anything', the US economy is over. They can't prove that Walmarts net worth came from trade rather than from some malware or error or some other fraud. That would leave cryptocurrency being the only thing that can actually be proven to be real.

Basing your currency on trust is great... until the trust is gone. And trust can disappear with a glance.

At $4 I was trying to explain to my professor that my capstone project wasn't based on drug money.

At something less than 1¢ I was just playing with a thing I came across on some forum, or Usenet, or something.

I found the hard drive from that computer a while ago, but there was no trace of the coins. There was no reason for me to keep them, after I'd finished playing with the software.

At 4$ I was pissed I traded 150 for WoW gold. AT 10k+ I was once again reminded the universe hates me.

I think that's why crypto-currencies will be doomed. Because too many people see it as something they can maybe buy for a pittance and at some point in the future cash out for a 5,000% increase.

It's not currency, people don't want to use it like currency. They want it to be a viable get rich quick scheme. Because whenever you refuse to use it for normal commerce lest next week, next month, next year, you regret your purchase because of huge price swings. Everyone would engage in that sort of behavior and I'm sure it's not the basis for a healthy economy or currency.

>AT 10k+ I was once again reminded the universe hates me.

Why? You'd have sold them at 150.

Maybe, more likely I would have halved my amount each time I sold. Which is what I did with my cheap ETH.

When the cleaning lady asks if she should buy bitcoin, is when you should dump and sell everything.

"When the street gets in, its time to get out."

peter lynch

People have asked me if they should buy in. I've simply told them as a complete gamble. Suggested if they want to buy go with a small amount of money and not be concerned if they lose it all. I don't know they bought but I made it clear it is risky and volatile. Sure there is a possibility of a good return, don't take out a second mortgage.

I got the Starbucks barista effect last dec. When it pumped, people with no money asked me about it.

Glad i told them to stay away.

Memorably when it was at $15K+ I was on the phone with my dad (who still uses MapQuest and pronounces CD-ROM with a heavy emphasis on ROM) said "well I think it's time for me to put my money into Bitcoin."

Thankfully he was joking.

At $80 I was mining using custom ASIC. At $20k I was trying to convince myself not to sell and that I was in it for the long run. I'm still in.

How much does it hurt?

I never felt like I owned anything, so it's not that bad.

I virtually went from £0 to £4k to £800. The ASIC miner (which I can now use as a nice doorstep) was paid off by selling half the amount I mined back then, so as of today that is still a £800 profit.

At 330 shoe-shine boys were buying into the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It went down to 42. It's at 24,581 now.

Yeah, and 400 years of inflation later, tulip bulbs are still way down from their peak, as long as you want to draw conclusions based on irrelevantly long periods of time.

Same but I brought some at 19000 fomo

IDK how popularity matters here?

Innovators. No one really heard of Bitcoin prior to the $1000 pump.

Silk Road had been talked about plenty in the mainstream media before it even hit $50.

Reddit heard plenty before 1000$

I was there the week it was released. Lost 100 bitcoins to a hard drive crash and never looked back. They use to literally hand them out like candy. Mt gox happened and I never took it seriously ever again.

If I asked my mother what Reddit is right now, she'd have no idea what I was saying.

If your mother has never heard of Instagram, Netflix, eBay, or Yahoo, that doesn't mean nobody has heard of them. They're still almost as popular as Reddit.

Instagram, Netflix and Yahoo are world brands. Reddit is mostly anglophone.

I lost a batch on MtGox but it looks like I might get something back.

I'm quite grateful the trustee sold off a few hundred million dollars worth at around $12k. At least there are some funds available to pay out to creditors.

2014-2015-2016 saw _A TON_ of stories about Bitcoin. I still remember reading the headlines "Bitcoin hitting $1,000!", "Bitcoin back to $150-200!" etc.

Most people still don't care about crypto

When was that - early 2017?

In mid 2016 mass market newspapers in the UK were running stories about using Bitcoin for holiday spending money - I vividly remember having a discussion with my wife about it.

Being in college around 2014, everyone knew bitcoin because that's how you got your ID for bars.

I learned of it from this very website when it was 2.3$

By virtue of being of participating in this site, you are operating in a realm that is so far out of touch to most people. We seem to forget that we are definitely in a bubble here.

At maybe $10k on the way up, my 70ish y.o. dad (40 years as SWE) said that all the young guys in his department were talking about something called Bitcoin.

I said, dad, you better not.

He said, don't worry, I won't.

At $10k on the way down, I asked him if he did. He said he didn't, but a bunch of those young guys did.

(I don't remember the exact value. Probably actually more like 12 or even 15.)

I sold around $14k after holding for years, and I was thinking about placing a short at $6500 but decided not to, the best traders in this space make money on the way up and down

How do you know how to position if up and down is determined by random bouts of speculative buying? Or in this case, egos clashing in a completely different crypto. There is so much more data and tangible information to guide you with traditional investments which may also have their speculative runs, but are more often based on the objective success of an asset that can be easily estimated, determined, and predicted.

Add some volume statistics to this comment

'Early adopters' at $1k. Haha. I can't help but laugh, after buying into bitcoin at $3.30.

Wanna bet?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com