Comment by softgrow | Hacker News Reader

Comment by softgrow | Hacker News Reader

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Australian here. Australia has different wild/bushfires in that the morning is always safe (at least as far as we know for the last 100 years) and easy to evacuate, the danger is in the afternoon. So there is a simple strategy that will always work, let's call it the "Westfield" strategy. If there is elevated risk, grab your irreplaceable and head to your nearest Westfield shopping centre for lunch in the food court. Then see a movie. Then attempt to go home. If your house didn't burn down then I hope you enjoyed your day out. If it did you are still alive. The problem though with this strategy is that chances are, and indeed amply demonstrated by the Victorian 2009 bushfires is that a large number of homes were threatened but only a very small proportion of towns and homes under threat were actually destroyed. Australia being inhabited by happy go-lucky gambler types brings out the worst in us, so people will chance it. (and add to that those without insurance who will stay to protect their asset as they are in a bind)

As to the US, no-one has ever died in traffic save for one single example I found in one canyon fire in California where a police cruiser assisting with evacuations crashed into a tree and blocked the road [You should expect once one person crashes, the next person will crash into them due to poor visibility] and the other end of the road was blocked by the fire and I think some roadworks, I'd need to look it up. That aside evacuation is much safer than "stay in place" particularly as the latter requires a great deal of mental fortitude to remain focussed in dense smoke and loud noise [people fail to do simple things and die], little own having a structure that will provide survivable conditions.

Roads can move a huge number of people even in cars. The only exception to this is to my understanding, again in California where there is a valley with a freeway through it but too many residences and I think limited capacity getting on to the freeway to evacuate everyone quickly.

Takeaway - evacuate early, nobody ever died from evacuating needlessly. Remember its just "stuff", possessions are not worth risking your life.

> Takeaway - evacuate early, nobody ever died from evacuating needlessly.

That's simply not true. The evacuations of Fukushima Daiichi have come under substantial criticism [1] for causing unnecessary harm, including deaths. Not everyone is a young and healthy mobile person able to evacuate and return home unaffected, especially if you consider the living conditions they must endure during the evacuation - not everyone can afford a hotel.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disa...

> As to the US, no-one has ever died in traffic save for one single example I found in one canyon fire in California where a police cruiser assisting with evacuations crashed into a tree and blocked the road

http://articles.latimes.com/1991-10-23/news/mn-174_1_fire-vi...

The example you quote is (bar one) people moving as pedestrians rather than with the protection of a vehicle. A vehicle offers a great deal of protection, particularly now with air-conditioning available to give a buffer against the heat. Also a slow moving vehicle moves a lot faster (away from danger) than a fast moving pedestrian. I remember a film, probably made in the 1950's (one of those Magnesium Chloride in your everyday life type thing) about "Always stay in the car in a bushfire, cover yourself with blankets and then put out the fires on the car when the fire has past". If you are out of a vehicle in a bushfire you need to dress appropriately to deal with the radiant heat, long trousers, long sleeves, hat etc. As bushfires are associated with hot weather, sadly, people particularly children are made much more vulnerable by wearing bathers (swimming trunks) and short sleeves when moving. Firefighters cover up with clothing for to deal with the radiant heat, among other things.

Can I please point out that the radiated heat from a fire will indeed kill the shit out of you even with your air-conditioner running. If you're within safe evacuation times, the car is a good bet, but if you're past the safe evacuation time you'd have better chances by staying put and making do with what you have.

https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/radiant-heat

(Sauce: I've been involved with volunteer bush firefighters)

I had an uncle who got trapped on Mount Macedon in '83 where he spent the night on the floor of a concrete public toilet block.

His car while drivable had the CFA logo magnet welded to the door from the heat of the firestorm.

Being trapped in a firestorm is a terrifying experience, it sounds like it's a damn good thing your uncle had the sense to find a safe place to take shelter!

He was based at the Fiskville training facility for a few years which would have been around that time and explain how he was at Macedon; prior to that he was a station chief so quite experienced.

The way he described the houses around them imploding and how the fire would rush out, take something and then suck back into itself sounded like a nightmare.

It was enough for him to have left the CFA a few years later.

First, that article also lists someone forced to abandon their vehicle.

And, for more detail: https://localwiki.org/oakland/Oakland_Firestorm_1991 - "Over half of the fatalities were in automobiles that were burned up on the winding roads."

From the Wikipedia article on the 1991 Oakland Hills fire:

"Additionally, many narrow, winding roads in the area were crowded with parked cars, including many in front of fire hydrants; this prevented fire trucks and ambulances from getting to certain areas and connecting fire hoses."

Probably missing some context, but why is it easier to evacuate in the morning than in the afternoon?

Not an Australian but as I understood it the winds pick up during the afternoon causing the fires the spread really fast. Basically you want to be at a safe place when the fire is moving fast.

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