Comment by mdeeks | Hacker News Reader

Comment by mdeeks | Hacker News Reader

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I was surprised by some of the cost benefits of EV. I did a rough total cost of ownership for my wife's Model 3 vs my Audi A4. Over five years (@17k miles per year) it came out to the Model 3 being ~$10k cheaper than the A4 despite the Model 3 having a higher sticker price.

Because I know it will come up, I know these prices are not reasonable for most people and certainly far from the promised $35k. This is just a comparison for the Luxury segment we were shopping for.

My TCO notes below if you're curious or have feedback on things I'm missing:

    Fuel costs for Audi A4
    567 Gallons Gas 		: Assuming ~30 MPG
    * $3.64/gal			: Premium grade in SF, CA
    = $2063 / year

    Fuel costs for Tesla M3
    4116 kWh	 Electricity	: 4.13 miles/kWh (310 miles range / 75kWh battery) 
    * $0.13046/kWh		: PG&E off-peak rates (Winter, after 11pm)
    = $537 / year

    Tesla Fuel savings = $1526 / year

    Tesla Model 3 costs/rebate break down
    $ 56500		: Total cost (out the door)
    + 2685		: Electricity cost over 5 years
    + 1750		: Home charging plug installation + permit
    - 7500		: Federal tax credit
    - 2500		: California rebate
    - 500		: PG&E rebate
    + 5605		: Insurance cost over 5 years
    + ?			: Maintenance & Repair (Unknown, but expected to be much less than Audi)
    ---
    = $56040	: Grand total

    Audi A4 costs break down
    $ 50226		: Total cost (out the door)
    + 10315		: Gas cost over 5 years
    + 5845		: Insurance cost over 5 years
    + ?			: Maintenance & Repair (Unknown, but expected to be much more than Tesla)
    ---
    = $66386	: Grand total

    Tesla Model 3 is at least $10,346 cheaper for her to own over 5 years.

    Notes: 
    - This doesn't include resale value though articles I've seen mention that Tesla's hold their value as well or better than most Luxury cars.
    - She gets free charging at work so electricity costs will be a lot lower for the M3 than the worse case scenario I have above

Ah, that's an interesting breakdown.

For me, those numbers boiled down to "a Tesla M3 is $10k cheaper than an A4 because it gets $10k of government rebates"

    - 7500		: Federal tax credit
    - 2500		: California rebate

Of course, the argument is that fossil fuel vehicles are the beneficiaries of unaccounted-for negative externalities, and that these rebates rectify that somewhat. But it's interesting that the A4 would otherwise be comparable. It seems that as long as the subsidies exist and it's mostly Tesla benefiting, it's in Tesla's interest to keep the price up at a level where this is the case -- where they're only cheaper due to subsidies.

The devil is in the details though. Things that can significantly swing prices:

1. Saving $5k by not getting Auto Pilot (The A4 doesn't have it so maybe it wasn't fair for me to include that in the price to begin with)

2. The true MPG the A4 gets on your normal commute (She's in a lot of stop and go traffic. I had to guess on the optimistic side. My gut feel is the A4 would get more like 25mpg, but I'm being optimistic with the Model 3 range of 310 too)

3. The actual costs of maintenance and repairs. It's estimated to be a lot less than the A4 but only time will tell.

4. You live in an area with reasonable power prices off-peak. That can bump the electricity costs in some areas by 50% or more.

5. I've seen people get a home plug installed for 1/3 of what I was charged.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some price drops across Tesla’s lineup next week when their federal tax credit gets cut in half.

Dan Neil (WSJ auto columnist) just wrote an article coming to the same conclusion.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/think-electric-vehicles-are-gre...

Looks as if it's basically a wash without the tax incentives, which is kind of amazing really. The cost of EVs will fall, so this means they will be cheaper than ICE cars without tax incentives very soon.

This could tip quickly. No wonder petrostates are freaking out.

I don't think you can really compare the interior/build quality of the Model 3 to the A4, though. The 3 squeaks and cracks when you push on the dash, has cheaper and cheaper-looking materials, as compared to the A4 (I've driven a 2015 and 2017 A4, and an Model 3).

I tried to keep these out of the calculation and discussion since it is highly subjective. For example, I'm the exact opposite of you. I can't stand my Audi interior now that I've ridden in a Model 3. I find the seats far more comfortable and the minimalist aesthetic far preferable than the million buttons, dials, and pointless displays in my A4. <- This probably triggered a lot of people (Sorry!) which is why I wanted to leave it out of the dollar cost.

I agree. I has the 2017 S-Line Prestige Edition and I much prefer the interior of a Tesla Model 3.

6k insurance over 5 years is $100 per month. That's lower that'd I've expected for a Tesla and Audi. What insurance are you using if you don't mind sharing?

I'm using Geico. They are configured with the exact same plan and deductible:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvcNZP5UwAA76pc.jpg:large

Thanks!

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