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Comment by sremani | Hacker News Reader

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President.

I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not Hillary Clinton.

Also, if you have an annual tradition of forecasting the upcoming year, please also make it a tradition of evaluating your previous year's prediction.

Edit: Here are his predictions for 2018. Some he got right, but on lot of stuff he played it both ways and honestly expressed his lack of clarity.

https://avc.com/2018/01/what-is-going-to-happen-in-2018/

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> Also, if you have an annual tradition of forecasting the upcoming year, please also make it a tradition of evaluating your previous year's prediction.

Good point, I was curious too, and I found exactly that for 2016:

https://avc.com/2016/12/what-did-and-did-not-happen-in-2016/

Edit: Same for other years: https://avc.com/2018/12/what-happened-in-2018/ https://avc.com/2017/12/what-happened-in-2017/ https://avc.com/2015/12/what-didnt-happen/ http://avc.com/2014/12/what-just-happened/

> I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not Hillary Clinton.

That basically amounts to saying that you don't believe a Clinton voter can be objective. That's evidence of bias on your part, not his.

That is my heuristic, is it sound? perhaps not. I have said "I will give weightage" not you should not take his prediction seriously.

I am biased and flawed, and I agree with your assessment.

I would point out that his predictions for 2018 included the opinion that Trump would remain President throughout. On hopeful thinking, many liberals would've suggested that Trump's Presidency would not survive 2018. So clearly he feels the changes throughout 2018 have reached a tipping point of some kind.

Democrats will control 54% of the next House. So his prediction is much more likely in 2019 than in any previous years. There's no reason to think this is based on politically-motivated wishful thinking.

That gives them the ability to functionally accomplish nothing, so it doesn't move the needle at all.

The majority in the house gains the chairman seats in all of the committees. We will see subpoena power used by democrats to investigate and ultimately inform the public on many things which the house republicans buried or ignored. Elections have consequences.

My personal, political hope is that the democrats try to be productive with the republicans in Congress and the White House - but of course maximizing the results of their leverage on the process. Unfortunately, there’s not much room for optimism from how the republicans denied cooperation with the democrats during the last administration.

The house, by itself, can do nothing but gridlock. They can subpoena all day long and it won't make any difference in anything. Neither party has a monopoly on burying things, and anyone who decides to not play by the rules is going to get destroyed by both sides -- your hope of some kind of transparency by the democrats is badly misplaced.

I personally don't mind gridlock that badly -- none of them have the best interests of the people in mind, so the less they're able to accomplish the better.

I would have voted for Clinton (if I were able to, and Bernie wasn't available).

But the Mueller investigation, so far, has uncovered: Trump's lawyer evading some taxes. With all that effort and such minor results it's not looking like they're going to find much.

> But the Mueller report, so far, has uncovered

No, it hasn't. There has been no report.

I've corrected my comment to say 'investigation' instead. The point still stands as I'm sure you're aware.

No, it really doesn't. The indictments that come out before the full report are the cast-offs. The things they happened to find that were tangential to the main investigation, or were separated (and deemed safe to separate) for a plea bargain, etc. Their number tells us far more about the security and discretion around the main investigation than about the severity of what it has found.

There won’t be a report until we get closer to reelection. He’ll drop it then.

You don’t have to be a democrat to bet on the Trump endgame.

The administration is a slow motion car crash.

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