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This doesn't change your argument too much, but FYI jet fuel is currently around $1.60/gal.

https://www.iata.org/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/Pag...

I think we are looking at different ends of the market, I'm using a search of the retail price at airfields near me in the last 30 days. (My parameters don't get reflected in the URL, you will need to choose some to get results.)

I suspect at "airline" scale there is a large discount over the full service pump prices I'm seeing. This might change the percentages to 10% and 25%.

It's also possible I'm seeing the "putz price". That made up price that "no one really pays", unless you are that guy who doesn't know better and does.

https://www.airnav.com/fuel/local.html

Jet-A at airfields isn't a valid measure of how much airlines. I read that most airlines pay around 1.10$/gal for Jet-A.

42 gallons in a barrel of oil. So the bottom price is going to be about (oil price)/42. Lots of complications in converting a random quality oil into jet fuel at an airport, but at scale you might add 10% to 20%. With current oil prices this does work out to around your $1.10/gal price.

A lot of major airlines engage in fuel hedging. who knows exactly how much they’re paying.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_hedging

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