Musicians have a history of taking long periods off. Sonny Rollins took a few multi-year stints off, during which time he worked on technique and ideas he didn't have time to work on as a touring musician. The Who have been in and out of retirement like 10 times.
We'll see how long it lasts. He'll probably dedicate himself to writing for a few years and get himself back in shape with long-distance bicycling. But, he'll probably be back. I could easily see him not want to do arena tours anymore though, maybe some jazz gigs or small-venue acoustic sets with Rush.
It's kind of interesting that two iconic drummers from the same generation - Bill Bruford and Neil Peart - decided to get out of the industry.