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My 20 something friend group has been consistent with snapchat since ~2013

I suspect that unless forced to migrate, or really nasty stuff comes to light, most people will use what they are used to, with the people that are used to doing it with. If a group stabilized on a platform and knows everyone has it and those people and be reached and expect to be reached on it by them, why change? Who wants to be the "hey, let's all just switch to some random new thing" person after you're old enough to be too busy to see most the people all at the same time in real like that often anyways?

Seriously. My friends use it a lot, but even more of my students do. It's rare to find a student who doesn't try to spend the day just snapping candid pictures of others... It's a mess and a half, but they're all over it. Don't see it dying out with that age group anytime soon.

My cohort of late 20s kids switched to insta now that it has stories and disappearing chat too