Predicting the success of a certain technology (the Lightning Network) and the price of something are two completely different things, though.
There’s tons of work involved in getting adoption for the tech happening in the background that is disconnected from the price. Especially considering how many people are speculating with it using vague public indicators (like media hype) without much direct connection to the value it’s producing.
Not to mention the unpredictablity of it’s long term value of an entire tech is far harder to predict than it is a companies value via stock price.