It's actually way lower than that, both by output and by headcount.
> and dropping
Not under Trump it's not: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/manufacturing-employment-i...
Quote: "Last year, 264,000 new manufacturing jobs were added, representing the highest number of new workers since 1988. As a percent of the total workforce, manufacturing rose for the first time since 1984."
Must be the "magic wand".
We would need another decade of record growth just to offset the losses from 2009. Let alone offset 2008 and all of the loss from 2008-2010 and return to even minuscule net growth over a 2 decade period.
One might think "okay, great, so deliver another decade of growth without a period of recession". Which sounds reasonable until you dig into the reason behind the recent job growth numbers. As the article that you cite points out:
> Baumohl said companies have come to the conclusion that the likely 3% growth the U.S. enjoyed last year was a “sugar high.” With reduced expectations for growth — even with the new incentives to write off depreciation in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — CEOs have concluded it’s better to meet the additional growth opportunities with new workers than pricier machines. “Workers are viewed more like inventory,” he says. “If you need them, you can hire them, and if the economy really turns south, you can let them go. CEO have taken a very realistic approach,” he said.
I.e., if you don't produce sustained growth, employees will be laid off. But if you do produce sustained growth, then incentives shift and capital investments in automation are easier to justified. Either way, and regardless of trade policy, don't expect manufacturing employment growth over the next decade to even offset the 2008-2011 losses, let alone return us to net growth over a 20 year window.
That's how they have been viewed for many hundreds of years now. Nobody will keep you on the payroll if costs more to have you than to not have you. I don't see how this is in any way new.
What is new, however, is that Trump is rejecting the ridiculous notion that we could just let someone else manufacture everything, and actively harasses large manufacturers so they don't take the easy way out and manufacture everything in China. With productivity gains over the last few decades labor cost is not a dominant factor anymore, even though US workers cost more than some sweatshop in China.
I don't get why this is not a bipartisan thing, BTW. Democrats are supposed to be the workers' party, right? Fighting for the downtrodden and stuff? Well, millions of those downtrodden are getting decent jobs now, thanks to Trump alone.