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Is Ronaldo 10x as likely to get a hat-trick to send his team forward in Champions League when they needed 3-0 to progress? He's not running 10x as far but he is so much better due to little things, such as being in the right spot at the right time.

Compare this to programming. A programmer who makes good decisions early on the project will likely save his company a lot of money down the line. A few poor decisions here will cost them a lot of money.

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Yes! Though Ronaldo is also known for how hard he trains - he is not relying just on his (massive) talent.

Experience gives you exposure to other solutions and can give insights and alternative ways of approaching stuff which as you say can make a huge difference. Sometimes you do just have to grind things out though.

I'm actually arguing that some parts of being a good programmer are things you're born with and that other parts are hard work. I feel some people just understand programming more naturally and if you give that person experience and they work hard then you'll get an amazing programmer at the end.

I could never have been as good as Ronaldo. I could never have even been a professional soccer player, I'm simply not athletic enough.

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