In your analysis, have you included the required base-load generation systems required when renewables aren't generating (night time, no wind) or the required storage systems to time shift the energy supply?

It depends on what period of time you are trying to cover for. Yes there are solutions today that work for short periods of time, but as renewables increase as a percentage of generation capacity, the more storage you need. Grid-level battery storage for large periods of time is unproven and crazy expensive if you just extrapolate from smaller solutions.