I don't think this is true at all. In fact, I have a hard time believing users actually prefer the web over native apps at all. As you say, web apps are pretty terrible. They will never be as fast or reliable as native apps.
> You still can't just search and be using a new application nearly immediately.
You can't? I sure can. Gnome, kde, and Mac all have great ways of searching through your apps. The windows search is a little crap.
But the great thing about a local, native environment is that the user is actually in control. If there is an app I need quick access to, I can map it to a shortcut or desktop icon. That's way faster that searching and scrolling through results.
From my non web dev perspective, the reason there is such a proliferation of bloated web apps is because of the devs. All of a sudden we have a ton of developers with little to no formal training who want to make cool apps instead of good products. So they layer on plenty of dependencies. And when there's a Cool New Framework© next week, they'll incorporate that too.
I just don't think devs have performance and user experience as number one priorities. The web will always be horribly slow compared to an SSD. In my opinion, the web has a couple of other fatal flaws that make it inferior to native for applications. But if we do want the web to be where all our applications to live anyway, we need to be concerned about performance as a high priority.