I don’t know. My guess is that the average gamer is less willing to forgive crappy art than the average game dev, because game devs have more experience dealing with works-in-progress that have unpolished graphics, and “seeing through” the graphics to the underlying merits. I could be wrong, though.

Certainly Jeff’s customers don’t value art too highly – or else they wouldn’t be Jeff’s customers! It’s a self-selected group. The real question is how many potential customers pass over his games because of the graphics.

Yes, the only way to answer that question would be for Jeff to make a big gamble. It makes perfect sense for him to not want to take such a risk. That doesn’t mean we can’t speculate about whether he would win that gamble if he made it. :)