In which case it’s extremely unlikely that you would name another valid address; so your transaction would eventually be invalidated.
Of course if the blockchain does say it was transferred to a nonexistant address then its gone forever. I guess if it passes checksum, this is the likely scenario?
Technically there is no such thing as a nonexistent address. There are used and unused addresses -- an unused address is just an address with no history, but there's no way to tell if anyone has the private keys for it or not. I guess it's possible accidentally typo an address that somehow passes checksum (let's pretend that people actually type in addresses... nobody does that, copy/paste or QR code) but it's very very unlikely.
For the checksum tech details: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Base58Check_encoding#Creating_a_B...