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Thought experiments based on basic principals and our still too weak understanding of bio-phys can (and have, time and time again) lead you to an awful lot of plausible but wrong conclusions.

There is no real substitute for doing the science.

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Really we need to do a study that says when you exercise less and sit around your body fat increases specifically in your internal organs. I think this is common sense and how fat accumulation works. This has been proven in the past and should be common knowledge. Insulin dependence related to this makes a little sense for a study but it is pretty well accepted that being obese increases your risk of type 2 diabetes. The fact that if you create a calorie deficit you will lose weight/body fat and if you don't you will increase weight/body fat is simple yet there is a diet industry built on fads and a bunch of over educated people with too many degrees in non physical science fields pushing their ideals so they can make money.

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