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Well, a lot would have to happen before that came about - the UK government would have to agree to Indyref2 and a majority of my fellow Scots would have to vote in favour of independence.

At this stage I think it is safe to say that it is very unlikely we'll get past the first of these.

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It may not be as far away as you think. A lot of Scots are understandably angry at false promises from the 2014 referendum (the famous Better Together tweet [0]) and now Brexit (Scotland voted overwhelmingly to Remain). Polling is starting to show a majority in favour of Indyref2 and voting for Independence in another referendum. Plus voting intention showing SNP taking almost all of Scotland's seats in a Westminster election. They're already the third largest party in Westminster. There are talks of deals with Labour promising Indyref2 if the SNP support a Labour government.

[0] https://twitter.com/uk_together/status/506899714923843584

If we crash out without a deal the case for a new referendum becomes a lot easier. It's a fundamental change to the Union and completely negates a large part of what the no campaign claimed where the benefits of staying together. I do think if we get a deal or just remain in the EU that Indyref2 will be much harder to sell.

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