The reality is that trend #2 is orders of magnitude larger. Any reversal of that by ‘AI’ would be the biggest jobs boom in decades for western nations, and according to this article, would increase quality and therefore trade balance as well.
The other reality is that manufacturing automation with ‘AI’ is hard, takes a lot of human effort, and is a huge part of a company’s value (e.g. Tesla). Outsourcing is often selling off this value at a negative price. It is done because Wall St analysts don’t know how to price this asset.
Like it or love it, it is investment analysts that determine company culture. The good thing is that they are greedy; they may be misinformed, but they are predictable. Everything above liquidation value is held in the heads of the employees of the company. Its actually not that hard to compute, and if business schools taught this, corporate behavior would change.