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Hmm, I actually feel like you're right here. I could see them letting it go through Chapter 11.

Out of curiosity, do you think they wouldn't let it even get that far to make sure they stay competitive vs Airbus?

In Boeing's current state, I don't think chapter 11 would achieve much. Their total debts aren't that large compared to their overall revenue and assets. Boeing's real current problems are poor management leading to poor corporate culture, and chapter 11 won't necessarily do anything to fix that. (I'm not sure how good Airbus' culture is either, but evidence suggests it may be better than Boeing's.) Even though 737 MAX is a big expensive mess, Boeing makes so much money on the rest of its businesses (its other commercial aircraft models, defense contracts, space, etc) I'm sure they can survive those losses.

So I don't think Boeing will be filing for chapter 11 any time soon. But in 5, 10, 15 years from now? Anything could happen. Maybe they'll turn the corner from this episode, and their business will have a very bright future. Maybe they get stuck in the doldrums, and then chapter 11 might slowly become more plausible as an ultimate outcome.

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