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I would guess that a computer beats humans on the IMO before a computer beats humans on the IOI/ICPC -- but also think that the latter would have far greater impact.

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I'm not sure I'd agree; they both seem like they'd be of similar difficulty to me. Why do you think that IMO would be easier for computers?

Have you seen this paper? https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ByldLrqlx

You can see some of the simpler programs that can already be generated on page 12.

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