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The logic is as valid now as it was then. The biggest difference between the two is that we know we failed to make the system that time, and we think we might succeed this time.

There's good reason to think that SpaceX might succeed where NASA failed. Less politics interfering. A reward system that is actually aligned with results. Decades (47 years since that announcement) of technological advancement. Experience with re-usable rockets.

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It's true that we do know more, but that's reflected in the even more ambitious promises being made. SpaceX will almost certainly improve greatly on the Shuttle, but will also just as certainly fail to live up to the projections being made for it now, before the first flight. And my guess is that it will fall short by quite a bit, these are pretty big claims being made. I think the Starship will become obsolete, for instance, before it ever gets to a flight rate of once per day.

> I think the Starship will become obsolete

yes, SpaceX will make it obsolete with Starship Ultra-Heavy, just as they are attempting to make Falcon 9/Heavy obsolete with Starship...

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