Comment by ergo98 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by ergo98 | Hacker News Reader

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What would be an interesting and insightful stat is to see what AT&T's handset breakdown is because you can expect that Verizon will follow a similar trend.

Why would you expect that?

AT&T not only was late to the Android party, they sacrificed the few meager offerings they had because the iPhone was their smartphone of choice.

If you were drawn to an Android device, it was unlikely it was at AT&T because even once they started carrying them, they carried the dregs like the Backflip. Instead you were choosing from every other carrier. If you wanted an iPhone, on the other hand, you were going to AT&T (hence why AT&T paid big dollars for the exclusivity, and it showed in their subscribership numbers).

Verizon's breakdown will be nothing like AT&T's.

Further, AT&T is suddenly in the Android game in a big, big way. I hear there's something like 20 top-flight 4G Android devices hitting AT&T in the next few months, including the leader of the pack Motorola Atrix. So from being the iPhone place, AT&T is almost switching to be an Android-dominated carrier.

I think this whole "iPhone was only on a single carrier, let's see how things change now!" thing is going to turn out quite unlike how many so desperately hope.

AT&T was not in the Android game because they had the iPhone. Verizon was in the Android game because they didn't have the iPhone. The carriers will go where the consumer goes. If Verizon's customers stop buying Android in favor of the iPhone it's of no consequence to Verizon's.

IMHO the reasons Android sells are:

1. It's not the iPhone. A minority of Apple haters rail against the notion of a walled garden;

2. US specifically: their chosen carrier didn't have it. One thing about the US I haven't seen elsewhere is that family plans are fairly common;

3. Android competes in markets the iPhone doesn't, specifically low end.

You'll note that I didn't mention cost as a factor, other than buying lower end phones (which is obviously a significant market). To reiterate this point: all the top end phones in the US have $199 up front and this isn't a significant factor over 2 years of service so, if this is a factor, it ranks far below carrier choice (IMHO).

Personally I think the Verizon iPhone will probably add a net 10M iPhone users in the first half at least.

Are you a time traveler from the past?

You might have had a point a year ago. Now, sorry, your argument is tired and dated. People want something that can play a couple of games, access Facebook and Twitter, visit websites, etc. There is a lot of competition, and the iPhone is only one option.

It has no entitled right to that market, nor is it necessarily the superior option. For many users it is the inferior option, rhetoric and flag waving aside.

A lot of customers are deciding among the available smartphones and walking out of the store with a Galaxy S or some other high-end Android device (which overwhelmingly dominant Android sales, despite the continued notion that it's some sort of low-end platform). It does what they want.

And that competition is only getting fiercer. Gingerbread, plus the upcoming (meaning weeks) gauntlet of devices == Android is putting aside the training bra.

But again, let's revisit this in six months. I'm sure there will be some new angle.

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