I understand that, I'm just saying that if your risk calculation concludes that LTS is less risky
by default, then it's based on false assumptions, based on misunderstanding. The new feature releases are not major releases. If companies were fine upgrading to feature ("limited update") releases while there were still major releases around, I don't see why they would be more risky now that major releases are gone. I think that people can
perceive them to be more risky because they confuse the change to the way those releases are named with the old major releases. For some companies, getting an LTS service is less risky, but not because of some intrinsic quality of LTS but because of their particular internal processes. For a great many companies, sticking to the default, gradual update process is the cheapest, least risky option.
Moreover, there are also special risks to LTS programs, particularly the free ones. A much smaller number of people work on them (about 1/50 of the total number of people working on OpenJDK), and they completely rely on backports from the mainline. So, for example, once the CMS collector is removed from the mainline, it becomes unsupported in some LTS programs (certainly the free ones) because there are no longer fixes to backport, and they don't have the resources to fix bugs without backports.
Finally, you can't talk about risk and treat LTS as a single thing, as the different LTS programs vary greatly in their risk vs. conservativeness. The Oracle LTS service contains almost only true patches: bug and security fixes, like the first two patches for each feature release. Red Hat's LTS/OpenJDK Updates and Azul's Zulu backport huge new features in their "patches." Amazon considers (or considered) taking the current VM and backporting it as a whole to an old JDK version in a "patch."