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Comment by ThePhysicist | Hacker News Reader

I think that view is a bit simplistic. Tesla is catering to upperclass and upper-middleclass people. 90 % of people in Germany either wouldn’t be able to afford or wouldn’t be willing to pay 50.000 € (what the cheapest Tesla model costs here) for a small sedan when they can get a Diesel car with similar capabilities for 20.000 € or less. And honestly most people don’t care much about emissions, they care about usability and ease of use, and there gasoline cars are just much more convenient than electric cars right now. I have several colleagues that drive Tesla and I find it a bit awkward that they have to plan their hotels and schedule around the available charging infrastructure even for small distances (e.g. for going from Berlin to Leipzig to attend 36c3). EVs would be awesome if the charging infrastructure was there but it isn’t and it won’t be for several years to come.

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The thing that gets me is electricity is EVERYWHERE in the developed world.

There are already libraries and other public places that slap a couple of EV chargers in the parking lot.

This was never feasible with gasoline.

It seems that when EV's are common enough, we may reach a tipping point where EV chargers are as ubiquitous as parking meters and free/paid wifi at current business establishments.

Today, a cafe almost can't stay in business without offering WiFi and laptop chargers.

The same may happen with EV charging.

Also, once EV battery capacity doubles (not far-fetched) the density of chargers will become even less important.

And, at that point, ICE cars will be at a staggering disadvantage to EV's, because it easier to put a paid charger in every parking space than it is to expand the ubiquity of gas stations.

And it's also harder to boost the range of ICE vehicles.

> Today, a cafe almost can't stay in business without offering WiFi and laptop chargers. The same may happen with EV charging.

It certainly will. Every fast-food restaurant in the US and most other countries will have EV chargers in the parking lot, with few exceptions. It'll happen extremely quickly as EVs go mainstream. Roughly 20 years from now I think there will be at least one million charging stations at such commercial locations across the US. McDonald's has five or six dozen charging units in Sweden as one example of the chains being eager to seek a competitive advantage. They've said they intend to blanket their locations in the Netherlands next.

There's lots of EV's in Norway, but chargers are not ubiquitous. Yet at least. There's often a few chargers at shopping malls and big public parking lots and so on. Anyway, I have an EV and have never used any public charger. I do all my charging at work (or at home if in a pinch). I assume it's the same for many people.

EVs are only a bit over 10% of vehicles in Norway (though a majority of new vehicles), and most of those were bought in the past few years. The average vehicle in Norway is 10 years old, when EVs were less than 1% of new vehicles.

I don't think that's enough vehicles or a long enough time to see the kind of ubiquity they are talking about. Will be interesting to see in 10 years or so once many of the older ICE vehicles have been taken out of service and electric vehicles are a majority of cars on the road and businesses have had time to adapt to high numbers of EVs.

Your analogy is ironic because there is almost no cafes in Germany with free wifi. The telecommunications infrastructure in general is terrible. Even directly in the city center I barely have mobile internet reception and I have doubt that with EV charging stations it will be different, especially with all the corruption coming from the car manufacturing corporations.

there is many uses where charging will be at least problematic. e.g camping away, or doing a road trip, or doing farm work. It's not enough for cafe's to provide chargers, because it's not as if people park right outside businesses, especially in old european towns.

i live in an island that is powered by an Oil power plant. it would be bad for the environment to use an electric car, power outages do happen, and the city is old and badly designed so that for the vast majority of people it's not possible to charge at home, they d have to add charging stations on every street.

i guess for the tesla's market - which is above average buyers - it is possible to charge easily. or it also happens to be their second car

Why do you think an EV would be bad for the environment in this island scenario?

Oil-burning generation electrical plants should power Evs about 1/3rd more efficiently than an equivalent ICE car.

Some comparisons: https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2017/dec...

Thanks for this, it still shows a rather small benefit, however. I do think that in a few years time electric can become the best choice. The mechanical simplicity alone is worth it

In Europe you go to a supermarket that has a large parking space. If you can charge there then you basically don't need to charge at home, especially if you also can charge at work.

Yes it will be good once the infrastructure is there, which will be the case in 5 years I think.

Berlin to Leipzig is 193km... shouldn't be a problem for a long range Tesla to do the return trip. I'm sure there's plenty of chargers? There's a supercharger right by Leipzig.

I haven't been to Germany in a long time but when I last visited luxury vehicles were quite dominant. Also doesn't gas cost a lot in Germany? Wouldn't that make the total cost of ownership even more compelling for EVs?

> Also doesn't gas cost a lot in Germany? Wouldn't that make the total cost of ownership even more compelling for EVs?

Electricity also costs a lot in Germany (for consumers at least), which offsets the savings on gas. Currently I'm paying about 30ct/kWh (Euro, so about 33.5ct/kWh in $) plus a 15€ monthly base fee. Gas is at 1.45€/l (or ~$6.14 per Gallon) right now. Last time I ran the numbers I ended up with a slightly higher cost per km with an EV compared to a normal car - before even factoring in the purchase price.

If you want to charge at a public charging prices sometimes go up 55ct/kwH, due to them having rather significant fixed costs for measuring power (each station needs to have a certified meter). This gets even more significant if you consider the fact that most people in urban environments won't have a house with a garage, which forces them to use public chargers.

Model 3 does about 4.1 mi/kWh. So that's 8.1c/mi (your prices). To pick one example, the A3 TDi does 42 mpg highway. That's 14c/mi. It's more like 19c/mi city. I just picked the most efficient car at the first German company I thought of. Perhaps there are other companies that make more efficient vehicles.

Also, at least in the US, most power companies have some kind of incentive pricing for people who own electric vehicles, if they charge at night. For example, during the summer, ConEdison has a plan under which you pay about 1/5th as much for power from midnight to 8AM. Assuming Germany's electric infrastructure is as advanced as that in the US (I hope!), then that reduces the Tesla's cost to about 2c/mi.

(Not factoring the reduced maintenance cost of a Tesla. Of course if you're really trying to save dough you buy a used Nissan Leaf or something sensible like that.)

While not German I need to highlight the fact that in Germany power generation relies much less to fossil and nuclear than in the US, roughly 1/3 less (~30% compared to ~82%, see links below) That makes Germany a bit more advanced on the generation part but also more expensive - without going into the nuclear debate here. So it is not apples to apples comparison at the end of the day

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-c...

But Germany appears to rely on Coal more than the USA for power generation.

Coal is the largest source of electricity in Germany. As of 2016, around 40% of the electricity in the country is generated from coal. Germany has been opening new coal power plants until recently, following a 2007 plan to build 26 new coal plants

Compare the energy pie chart for Germany vs USA. (Add brown coal and hard coal percentages)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States

> As of 2016, around 40% of the electricity in the country is generated from coal.

As of 2019 this is 28%.

> Germany has been opening new coal power plants until recently

While closing many older ones.

> following a 2007 plan to build 26 new coal plants

Which it didn't.

That's fine, but I used the German parent poster's energy prices in my calculations, and the Tesla was still cheaper per mile.

I should have clarified probably that I was referring to this part of your post: >Assuming Germany's electric infrastructure is as advanced as that in the US (I hope!), then that reduces the Tesla's cost to about 2c/mi.

Yes there’s a supercharger there but as my colleague explained it you can forget about it when you’re at an event where many other Tesla drivers go, as you’ll have to queue a long time to use it. As I said EVs will be awesome when the infrastructure is finally there, right now it isn’t though so for most people gasoline cars are still more convenient.

Additionally, more people do not have a garage to park in, so loading at home is not an option, and many companies assume their workforce to use public transport and don't provide parking either.

If you own a Tesla the infrastructure is there. Our family regularly takes cross country trips in our Model 3. It is more convenient than our gas car because AutoPilot makes driving long distances on the highway much much easier.

Charging has never been an issue for us, Tesla's SuperCharger network is excellent and routing to chargers on long trips is seamlessly integrated into the car's software using Google Maps.

As for cost, the cost of a base model Tesla has come down more than 50% in the past decade. I highly doubt price reductions stop there. One more 50% reduction and these cars will be on par with the cheapest compact gas cars available today.

Well that would be fantastic, I think the model 3 is a nice car but for what it is I find it quite overpriced right now (probably a good strategy for Tesla though as anyway they need to ramp up their production first so they sell at a price that creates just enough demand for their capacity). I think at 25.000 € I would be happy to buy one. Right now I could still buy a Mercedes C class hybrid for the price of the Tesla here. As I don’t need a car urgently I’ll wait a couple of years in any case, it seems there will be a lot of movement in the EV space in the coming years.

Tesla is a rather simple car at the price of S500 and stretched S600 if fully loaded.

Now, have you ever experienced the level of comfort you get even in the most basic sonderclasse? Tesla simply doesn't feel like a true luxury car.

I’ve been in taxis in Germany. I’d take a tesla over an s class any day.

What is the level of comfort you get in a basic soundercLasse? Can you describe it?

First, rear seat height is much higher. Rear seat couch is much more unadjustable. Climate control for rear seats that really work. Rear passenger comfort is a head above Tesla's

Materials in interior are a grade above Tesla's. Everything feels much less "plasticky." I don't demand unicorn leather, but Tesla's first gen model S materials are of no higher grade than that used in "economy cars with leather"

Suspension is a bit better, Tesla is close though.

Sound insulation is better.

In 2Q 2019, USA market, the Tesla Model 3 outsold the combined total of BMW 3 series, Audi A4 and Mercedes C/E class.

https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/08/Tesla-Model-3-vs-Lux...

And most of the Americans use iPhone too. Not true for the rest of the western world. You always tend to read from online how poor American working class are, but the fact is Americans either have insane amount of disposable income or you spend like crazy. That is why so much ecommerce is focused on Americans and every ad click you make costs way much more than others.

US income and disposable income figures for the middle class are among the highest in the world. Only a few wealthy countries like Switzerland and Norway compare. In terms of household disposable income, the US is the highest in the world. The full-time median US job pays about $50,000 now.

The US household disposable income figure is drastically higher than in most of developed Europe. 50% higher than Sweden, the Netherlands or Finland:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/725764/oecd-household-di...

This is has been true for a long time:

https://skift.com/2013/05/15/u-s-has-the-highest-disposable-...

The median household disposable income figure typically places the US in the top few nations:

https://mises.org/wire/when-it-comes-household-income-sweden...

The median household wealth figures are higher in the US than in Germany or Sweden (but lower than France or Britain).

The US also has an extremely progressive income tax setup, with the middle class having among the lowest income tax burden of any developed nation.

At $50,000 in a typical city like Atlanta or Pittsburgh, the typical person will pay 20% in total income taxes. In Texas (no state income tax) you can climb up to around $70,000 and still stay under a 20% rate. In most of the US you can make $200,000 and still be close to a 30% rate. The US middle and middle-upper class is entirely oblivious to how hyper low their taxes are (as a trade-off they are not getting guaranteed universal healthcare either of course, their employer must cover it or they have to).

If the US ever fixed its healthcare disaster and brought costs under proper control (shaving a trillion dollars in annual costs), in financial respects at least it'd be nearly a paradise.

They buy a lot of stuff on credit that would be paid from savings in the EU.

Eh? And now compare with a Honda Civic or a Toyota Camry. Even among just the higher end those three are not nearly as big in market share as they are in Germany - in the US they are just one more model to compete, in Germany they own most of that market.So it does not exactly tell us much if Tesla sold more there. So in sum, I don't see how you are refuting the parent commenter.

I see this argument ("similar capabilities for 20.000 € or less") a lot, and I'm not buying it. I supposed it depends on what "capabilities" you're talking about (number of passengers?), but a Tesla is going to be faster, quicker, safer, cheaper to fuel and cheaper to maintain than any 20.000 € car I can think of.

> but a Tesla is going to be faster, quicker

Not really. An old mk4 golf will let you do 650km at 200kph on the Autobahn with 5m refueling time. But Germans are going hard after no speed limit so that will soon not be an argument.

Curious which German made Diesel cars costs 20.000 € or less. I get the impression from Germans that EVs are not a good solution to replace diesel. Perhaps there just isn't motivation of the populas behind the techonology. Which could be blamed on the lack of infrastructure to support charging. Also in the United States a lot of people have garages that they can install charging stations in. I wonder what the percentage of Germans who have a private garage is.

> Curious which German made Diesel cars costs 20.000 € or less.

All the VW Polos. And around the 20,000 euro mark you can get the majority of the VW Golf Diesel models and my personal favorite, the Skoda Octavia (made just across the border, in Czechia). The first and second-generation diesel Octavias were built like tanks, there are many example of them reaching the 1 million km mark, and the latest ones are pretty decent, too.

Most people in Germany rent, so they even less power to make these decisions. Americans tend to own nice and big houses with a lot of garage space and all the freedom that comes with it.

Irrelevant of diesel, if you only need a city car, say alike the Citroen C1, you can get a gas car with 600km range for about 12,000EUR. That 1.5x better range for 20% of the price and 25% smaller on top of that. For the same package, the Citroen C0 has about 20% of the range for twice the price.

They're quite awful cars thpugh. I had a rental C3 Aircross in Portugal, it wouldn't climb a moderately steep hill without pressing the pedal to the metal.

The VW Polo turbo diesel has a list price of 15,000€ before discounts.

If you’re living in the countryside it’s usually not an issue, most people in major cities park their cars on the street though, so for EVs to become viable you would need a much better infrastructure. This will happen but I estimate it will take at least 5 more years.

Anecdotally I’d say it’s about the same: if you live in a sub urb and have a detached or semi detached home you have a garage; if yuh live in an urban environment you often don’t. I think these factors are the same in both countries.

I'd be onboard with your view if it wasn't for BMW and Mercedes. (And Audi a bit). None of those are cheap. Not Tesla-expensive, but there aren't really any cheap Mercedes or BMW, and they do sell a ton of those. Tesla is not "too expensive" for people buying new S class or 5/7 series.

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