That's still true, and it's a better analogy. HTML5 in 2010 and Java applets in 1996 both promised portability at the cost of a nonstandard UI.
For HTML5 to become prominent, it needs to offer something to users that iPhone apps don't. Users don't care about portability or ease of multiplatform development.
I do agree that HTML 5 apps should not be trying to emulate native desktop or mobile apps. Instead, they should be what they really are: native browser apps.
CONSUMERS dont care about this - enterprise and medical applications should.
When you access an app/session from one device and seamlessly transition to another device and the same session, then the beauty of such a system will have impact on efficacy of certain tasks.
The consumer use of the iphone and android mobile devices will be strong and lasting - but to make significant impacts on how things are done in other verticals will not only be important - but also highly profitable for some.