> where would $1 have been best invested on March 25, 2015, when Altman wrote his post?

Which is an unfair criticism to Altman, because typical VC returns only mature 7~10 years later. If you put $1 into Uber in 2009 and exited at IPO, your returns would far exceed the S&P. This is a terrible financial analysis from Thompson, but I don't think that was his real point from the newsletter anyway.

That being said, the point still stands, investing in venture is generally NOT a good strategy in of itself. The general recommendation is less than 5% of your overall net worth.