Comment by trezor | Hacker News Reader

Comment by trezor | Hacker News Reader

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It was "throw out our current reasonably successful development efforts and become a licensee of Microsoft's failed platform instead".

Reasonably successful? I dare you to name one single Nokia-phone made the last half decade which you would consider relevant.

The truth is that platform-wise and software-wise, the bits you interact with, they've been stagnant since around 2000 and no amount of megapixels or Carl Zeiss optics will be able to compensate for that. They seriously need to throw their old stuff away and start going on something new. Like Microsoft did with Windows Mobile prior to Windows Phone 7.

I'm honestly surprised they didn't do it years ago. Now they've finally gotten a CEO which actually understands this and is willing to act on it. About time! While Microsoft is a risky bet, this move may actually save Nokia from complete annihilation and is certainly better than doing nothing at all.

And so far, Windows Phone 7 looks pretty good. Care to elaborate on how it is a failed platform already? Not disputing it if you have numbers, just that so far I've actually seen more enthusiasm for it than I expected to see.

Reasonably successful? I dare you to name one single Nokia-phone made the last half decade which you would consider relevant.

Well "dare" is a pretty big word, as if you're making some kind of threat of retaliation if I do.

So let's just ask Google: http://www.google.com/search?q=nokia+market+penetration

Second link: http://gigaom.com/2010/03/18/the-mobile-os-market/

Check that out. According to that data, in the 2007-2009 time frame they shipped more cell phone operating systems than everyone else combined. That probably translates into a lot of physical Nokia phones, too.

The point that it may be stagnant is well taken, which is why I said "reasonably successful" instead of "stomping everyone else into the ground".

But irrelevant it is not.

No, stagnant would imply things were stable and they're clearly not. You can make an argument that Symbian OS was successful in the past, but the trend in the GigaOM chart you linked is pretty clear: rapid decline. In 2007, Symbian was around 2/3 of the total smartphone market, and two years later it had fallen below 50%. During the same period, RIM almost tripled its market share and the iPhone and Android numbers were showing even stronger growth.

Care to share dynamics of Nokia's market share during last two years?

The point that it may be stagnant is well taken, which is why I said "reasonably successful" instead of "stomping everyone else into the ground". But irrelevant it is not.

Fair enough. But if you look at how quickly Windows Mobile went from being the de-facto Smartphone OS to completely irrelevant and take into account (as Nokia's CEO acknowledged) that they are being taken on and losing market-share at every point which they've usually excelled at, it's clear that while they may not be irrelevant now, the way there is not very long.

The need to do something drastic was IMO very real. If going for Microsoft and Windows Phone 7 as opposed to other options like Android was the best choice can clearly be debated, but something had to be done. Staying with the "reasonable successful" platform they had would not have been a viable long term strategy.

Nokia sells LOTS of phones. You've got to remember than not everyone lives in the Bay Area and has a Twitter account... People living in Sub-saharan Africa and central Asia still need cell phones and the majority can't afford some flashing thing with a touch-screen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_mobile_pho...

And to quote the CEO: "Let's not forget about the low-end price range. In 2008, MediaTek supplied complete reference designs for phone chipsets, which enabled manufacturers in the Shenzhen region of China to produce phones at an unbelievable pace. By some accounts, this ecosystem now produces more than one third of the phones sold globally - taking share from us in emerging markets."

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