> like so many very successful and brilliant people Turing was wildly over-confident in his own analysis
This is so common, yet most individuals that fall into this trap will never recognize it.
This is so common, yet most individuals that fall into this trap will never recognize it.
There's definitely a lesson here, but I would not call it over-confidence. If the bank had gone under, would that have been called over-confidence on the part of his friend? At some point, every mistake of any kind whatsoever is called "over-confidence".