Comment by tenacious_tuna | Hacker News Reader

Comment by tenacious_tuna | Hacker News Reader

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anecdotal evidence with n=1, but I'm a Tesla owner who refuses to pay for the "Full Self Driving" tech, expressly because I think it's way further off and overhyped compared to what I'd actually want for the cost.

I especially think the "your car becomes a taxi and pays for itself" gimmick is beyond fantasy. I chalk it up to Musk being an actually mildly insane CEO, which has benefits to go with its downsides.

As for the cost of the car, I wanted an EV with more range than other manufacturers provided. (I also make use of the longer range on a regular basis--probably about 2 times a month?) (edit:) I also wanted a car that Went Fast. Not practical in any real sense, but a lot of fun.

There are around a dozen Tesla owners at my company. As far as I know, none of them are banking on their cars being a taxi and earning tons of dough. At least one has the FSD upgrade, and uses it primarily to back his car out of the garage on its own so his kids don't bang up the doors when they get in.

I especially think the "your car becomes a taxi and pays for itself" gimmick is beyond fantasy.

And if it really did happen the way these people imagine, competition in the market against everyone else who has a Tesla would likely slash taxi fares down to within a few percent of your operating costs.

Also a Tesla owner (Model 3, have the FSD upgrade). I think Elon has a particular way of seeing the future. There are people that say FSD will never happen. But do they really mean that? Will people in 10,000 years be using a steering wheel?

Elon sees FSD happening between 2020 and 12020. There is no know reason that it can't happen. Well let's assume if we work real hard we can do it in 5 years instead of 5000. If it takes 15 or 50 or 100 years, no matter. That's basically the same, but the earlier we start the sooner we have it.

Of course, there are those who think there is some spiritual/religious component to true AI that we'll never be able to simulate. But Elon either disagrees or things that level of AI isn't required for FSD.

That's fine. Then don't say "your car can self drive" and don't accept money for a "full self driving package" till you can actually DELIVER that. Or at least add a disclaimer saying "* this may never happen, no promises but thanks for the money, lol"

To be fair, they do state that FSD features will be released in the future based on achieving better reliability than humans over billions of miles and after regulatory approval has been obtained.

All new Tesla cars have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances.

...[blahblahblah FSD features]...

The future use of these features without supervision is dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving capabilities are introduced, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.

https://www.tesla.com/autopilot

If FSD as described doesn't happen, I'm sure there will be lawsuits and refunds just like there was with AP1.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-autopilot-lawsuit/t...

But the refund after settlement was $ 20 to $ 280 while these people paid $ 5000 for a previous version of Autopilot (now it's even more).

The settlement was for the delays in delivering features, not because Tesla didn't deliver features. I'm sure Tesla would have had to much significantly more had they not delivered the features promised.

https://techcrunch.com/2018/05/25/tesla-settles-class-action...

In the US customers have the option to cancel the order: https://www.ftc.gov/tips-advice/business-center/guidance/bus...

Is tesla accounting for this liability correctly?

> Elon sees FSD happening between 2020 and 12020.

Elon has been quoted, multiple times:

"FSD will be available, this year, 2016".

then:

"FSD will be available, this year, 2018".

and the latest:

"You will be able to FSD, coast to coast, completely hands-free, by the end of this year [2020]".

Turning it into him just "visioneering" is an entirely overly-complimentary viewpoint of what he has said and done.

Ok, that's a fair criticism of my reply. I think I'm preconditioned to take any date Elon throws out with a huge grain of salt, enough to not really put any faith in it. Others could definitely be misled.

But that's not how his loud public claims are structured. He says it will be done on this hardware in this single digit number of years.

I'm sure self driving will happen. But on that hardware, in a short time, and it's going to pay for the cost of the car??? This seems quite unlikely to me.

Any early taxicab self-driving (e.g. no responsible operator present) is almost certainly going to be bristling with additional sensors for safety CYA.

That may be the most forgiving interpretation of a person's actions that I've ever seen.

I've seen people rationalize Hitler, so I'm at least second ;)

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