> the death rate in the hubei region itself is also several times higher than in most western countries
Italy now has a higher case fatality than Hubei, and getting close to Wuhan.
Italy now has a higher case fatality than Hubei, and getting close to Wuhan.
CFR can change tomorrow for a given population. Another reason it’s such an elusive number.
When the infection spread is increasing, more new cases are coming in today than yesterday, and so the CFR contains a good portion of people who are still early in the illness lifecycle. Just because some haven’t died yet doesn’t mean they won’t. Meanwhile, as the spread continues, the healthcare infrastructure may reach a tipping point where it can’t treat people as effectively.