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Comment by schoen | Hacker News Reader

I think you've misinterpreted two items there (although they're ambiguously phrased and it would be helpful to have a source with clearer phrasing).

First, I think the 5% refers to 5% of persons infected with the virus, not to 5% of the entire population of the U.S., although this is the least clear part.

Second, the "critical care" part refers to "being admitted as an inpatient" (not being admitted to an ICU), as distinct from an outpatient office or ER visit.

I don't think the authors meant to suggest that the CDC believes that 5% of the U.S. population will require ICU care during this epidemic.

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No. This is written ambiguously. It starts with

>As the virus continues to spread nationally

And then the numbers are listed as

>80% of the population may experience mild symptoms, such as fever or flu-like symptoms that they treat at home

If it were as you say, they would write x% of the infected population, or something to that effect. Then again, given all the incompetence I've witnessed lately across the news, it wouldn't surprise me if they ambiguously wrote it by mistake.

In any case, you'll note that China just shut down it's entire industry for two months over this. That's not something an authoritarian state does lightly. Especially considering it may, say, make it obvious that sending all of your production offshore to China is a national security threat.

Edit: Italian Prime Minister just made a 2AM press announcement of the Isolation of Lombardy. That's 16 million people. We're approaching the right ballpark here. 8% of the Iranian parliment have confirmed cases. Two are already dead. This is everything we've been warning you about.

It might be written ambiguously, but one should not interpret it to mean that 100% of people in the U.S. will be infected.

Especially when the "80%" is followed by:

> 80% of the population may experience mild symptoms, such as fever or flu-like symptoms that they treat at home

> 15% may seek medical care, such as visiting an Urgent Care or Emergency Department

> 5% may require critical care, meaning being admitted as an inpatient

>https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-how-hospitals-a...

This source from business insider reports that the US gov is preparing for 96 million infections. 5% is almost 5 million hospitalizations.

At this point you people just don't want to believe. This is not yet another flu scare. This is the real fucking deal. A historic pandemic. Prepare while you can. Just look at what's going on in what, 10 countries now? Millions of people placed on lockdown in Western nation's now? Italy just locked down 16 million people on Lombardy. French PM says he doesn't think the virus can be contained.

It is only prudent at this point to stock up on nonperishables. This isn't just to protect yourself - if you get the virus it will be responsible to sequester yourself in your home to protect the population. The irresponsibility of those who refuse to take this seriously and prepare is putting all of us at risk now. The U.S. is NOT EQUIPPED to handle this kind of outbreak. The system WILL BE OVERWHELMED in the next 1-6 weeks. And if China, SK, et al. are any indication, it will drag on for months.

Nobody said you shouldn’t be prepared. The system will be overwhelmed (and probably already is from the flu this year).

We’re just saying not 100% of people are going to be infected. Even your business insider article is not saying that. Stop moving the goalpost. Sometimes we're wrong or we misread something, and that's okay.

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