I don't think any analysis is valid right now since we don't know what long term even means at this point.
I think the companies that will benefit will be entirely unpredictable, because we're about to fall into a steep descent in our gradient and the optimization of companies business models and products is about to get crazy. Just like '08 and '01.
I've already tried buying some stuff I'd normally get at a store from Amazon and the lead time was questionable.
Better way to think is what is NOT going to change - food, shelter, utilities, telco, etc.
Will go down - luxuries, appliances, home improvement, cars, etc.
The only problem in the long run with streaming services is that they will soon run out of fresh content.
Disney is interesting because they have the deepest bench, so to speak in terms of catalog. They also have the kids stuff, and all the kids are at home. They also had their stock dip below $100 with the crash this week, had to shutdown their parks, and quite recently reorganized the entire direct to consumer business. I'd put some money on Disney coming out on top there.
Netflix relies on new content to reduce churn. If production is halted I don't know how that looks for them. However if you take out their capex on production, they suddenly become stupidly profitable. So who knows.
As for the rest of people, I agree that when you're competing with hundreds of other sources of entertainment and ways to spend your days, Netflix's catalog may not be amazing, but when most of the population is stuck at home, I'm sure there are plenty of stuff people will find and enjoy on Netflix.
Disney is definitely a runner up too. They've started moving releases closers. They just released Frozen 2 and the new Starwars movie digitally.