How are California and Washington "behind" Italy, when both states had infections reported before Italy? Sorry, trying to understand the methodology here.
Or are you just basing this off of raw case counts?
Or are you just basing this off of raw case counts?
For all we know this person got their numbers by just guesstimating. Most countries have differing "exposure vectors" so to say, which means that just comparing other countries to Italy is nonsense.
The same people were prominent internet economists and political scientists just a month ago. They have many talents.
Before 100 cases, the evolution of the epidemic is noisy, but it becomes pretty regular afterwards with 20-30% daily growth (in the absence of strong control measures).
> "Day 1" is when a country reaches 100 cases. A country is "X days behind Italy" if they reached 100 cases that many days after Italy did.