Not only is the CFR lower than I had anticipated, but it made me realize that a hospital trip doesn't immediately imply intensive care.
For instance a 35 year old has 3.2% chance of going to hospital, and then 5% chance of ending up in the ICU when going to hospital.
Can I multiply these together to get 0.16% chance of ending up in the ICU once infected, or is that too simplistic :)
If the health system gets swamped by 50% of a country's population, then you basically have the same situation as they have in Italy.
We're just at the very beginning here in Denmark, the number of hospitalized people has roughly doubled every day for the past 3-4 days, and already hospitals are running out of masks and other essential equipment. Since the world is in lockdown, and everybody is fighting this, basic supplies are in short demand everywhere.
What with all the people who are obese, smoke heavily, have asthma, immune compromised, etc I would have assumed 0.16% of people find themselves in the ICU if they get a cold.
If you're healthy you (probably) don't have anything to worry about, but if you're diabetic, smoking, have hypertension or other normally manageable conditions, you're (maybe) at risk.
And to all the healthy people who seems to think they're immune. You probably won't die from it, but someone in your close family may very well die because you didn't take it seriously.