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I read somewhere that the percentage of conservatives who believe that Covid is a threat dropped from 70% in Feb to like 30% now. Not sure if that's true, but if it is, it would indicate their beliefs are vastly more dependent on his words, than his words on their beliefs.

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Are you sure those numbers aren't reversed? I'm in a red state and while most people I know were in denial a month ago most now at least have moderate concern. It's pretty hard to deny that COVID-19 is a threat when our hospitals are full and the empty shelves in our grocery stores are a signal that people are panicking.

There seems to be some whiplash effect. Also the geographic sorting of voters leads to a not insignificant number of people deciding that it's an urban/blue state problem.

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