> So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.
These numbers, afaik, are just wild guess-estimates. The real numbers are still not known because we are yet to have a breakdown from an country that went with herd-immunity and see how that did pan-out.
But the real question is: Is the mortality rate, overboard, increase and if so, is it increasing significantly.
Italy is recording ~700 deaths per day. But ~2.000 deaths per day happens on a regular basis. If we were to pack a year of deaths into a two weeks slot, then we should see ~40.000 deaths every 24 hours. We are clearly very far from there.
It's surprising that no country is doing that but what we should do is test people randomly. That will estimate the % of the population that is currently infected with Covid-19 and determine a more accurate fatality rate.
It's very possible that the Covid is a nothing-burger really and the recorded deaths would have died naturally anyway.