> Nobody knows.
10 mill unemployed in the US in two weeks is a pretty good signal if you ask me ;D. That is something like 6% of the total work force.
10 mill unemployed in the US in two weeks is a pretty good signal if you ask me ;D. That is something like 6% of the total work force.
The only real answer is, nobody knows. By the time anyone could collect enough data to even have a real guess, we'll already be running the natural experiment directly to see how many people get back to work.
One thing I will predict with confidence though is that the result will not be exactly the same as if the "normal economy" had produced a 30% unemployment number. Straight-line projections of that nature are useless.
Businesses are closing permanently in Seattle. It may take some time for these jobs to rematerialize.
We just don't know. We've never seen anything like this in the modern era.
I do suspect that we're going to see one of those generational shifts like the Great Depression, and a lot more businesses are going to start thinking in terms of "runway", and trying to keep around a few months of "runway" in the future.
Banks might benefit from that, but they’re simultaneously getting hammered by low interest stimulus loans.