Hacker News Reader

Wait what?

Assuming a 10 mile journey, the probability of death is 1.25E-7.

CFR for 20-49 age group is 0.3% (probability 3E-3)

So either my math is wrong or you are wrong by only 4 orders of magnitude.

Keep in mind that CFR takes into account only those that are confirmed positive (which are mostly people who already have severe symptoms).

That said, parent comment's math is still way off (see my sibling comment).

Parent cited a postitive testing patient, driving themselves to hospital.