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Comment by baybal2 | Hacker News Reader

> which forced the China central government to crack down on manufacturers, and only allow “medical grade” certified masks to be shipped.

There is way more to it than that. That was a very convenient pretext for China to legitimise its unofficial exports ban. It reduced the number of exporters to single digits per provice, and even few ones with appropriate licenses are now being turn arond at customs without explanations.

China's official Red Cross, however, seems to have zero problem exporting just anything off the shelf.

Even supplies for which there simply can't be a medical certification are stalling at customs. I know a person who works in medical clothing industry, and they ran into that with... hospital bedsheets.

As of now, the lion share of PPE coming from China is effectively being smuggled out.

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> China's official Red Cross, however, seems to have zero problem exporting just anything off the shelf.

> Even supplies for which there simply can't be a medical certification are stalling at customs.

I don't think there is way more ongoing. That's just how things work in China and CCP's distinct way of being incompetent. CCP is known for its intolerance of critics, especially when covered by international news firm. They try their best to avoid it, not considering anything else. When someone in country create buzz, they censor it, sometimes arrest the author. When someone they can't arrest does it, they suppress what they can to "avoid the problem". This is politic and weighted more than anything else. A lot of party members still don't recognize free market and a strong private side as being important, especially Xi. After all they are communist.

In this case, the problem was seen as "some shady businessmen exporting unreliable masks for their own profit and got caught, it harms our 'global image'". So they took them down, switched to assuming everything coming from private side are garbage unless you can prove otherwise.

OTOH, government-ran Red Cross have zero problems because they are "trusted and endorsed".

> In this case, the problem was seen as "some shady businessmen exporting unreliable masks for their own profit and got caught, it harms our 'global image'". So they took them down.

No, no, no, no. The point I make is very different. Don't think of them as that dumb.

While, yes, a giant amount of PPE is now being exported in contravention of the ban, the very few well connected companies are making 8 digit sums per day thanks to it.

Also, the Chinese red cross is now very happy with PPE makers having no way to sell their stuff to the West, because now they can buy piles of it on the cheap for export through their "special channel."

The same thing has happened during the ASF outbreak last year. Pork prices soared N-fold, state media were all screaming murder, the national pork reserve was unsealed, but... at the same time, pork importation was quietly banned using overzealous sanitary inspections, culls of otherwise healthy pigs were ordered, and somebody made billions.

I see, you are right. Creating new rent-seeking chances is indeed an important piece.

I'm more on the other incentive behind the action. I agree it might not be primary, but to apply this top-down there had to be something more.

it's not cheap even domestically, N95 china retail price is 20RMB right now (not like 3M, domestic brands). Compare to US price ~$6-7 most of that difference is shipping. The price inflation goes all the way to the source production equipment and raw materials, it's every step.

I haven't seen N95 prices that cheap here in weeks. Anything I see is mostly around 30RMB right now (like a 3Q with NIOSH certification). KN95s are still lower.

We've talked with multiple vendors who simply can't get non-woven material stock at all and are having to turn away orders.

It reminds me of Operation Barbarossa. Many reconnaissance pilots rang the alarm about the huge buildup of German forces near the Soviet border (in Poland). They weren't only ignored, but threatened. That continued even early into the German attack. German soldiers swam across the river to warn the Soviets. They were shot as enemy agents.

You don't prevent a fire by taking the piles out of the smoke detector.

If you build a culture where reporting problems is dangerous, you'll only hear good news that can be shared and catastrophic news that can't be ignored.

Do you have a source for that?

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