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Comment by wbraun | Hacker News Reader

I really hate how the media keeps conflating the theories that the virus was engineered and that the virus escaped from a lab. Even the title of this article has been editorialized to conflate the two.

I mostly trust what people have said about the virus lacking signs of being engineered or otherwise modified.

That the virus escaped from a lab is totally plausible and has precedent. It is a shame it gets lumped in with the other theory. SARS escaped Chinese research labs twice and there are many other instances worldwide of pathogens escaping research labs.

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Newsweek has specifically addressed just the "escaped from a lab" theory.

'Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded Scientists Say'

https://www.newsweek.com/claim-that-coronavirus-came-lab-chi...

Fundamentally, you are not going to find any direct evidence that the virus came from a lab unless the virus has signs of being engineered (which seems to not be the case).

Only in the last week or so major news organizations have started covering the theory of lab escape of an unmodified pathogen. You can find tons or articles arguing either way.

Given the fact that almost every city in China is going to have wet markets, but Wuhan is one of the few (only?) cities to have labs researching these types of viruses it would be irresponsible to not consider the possibility. Given that the CCP is going to do the utmost to cover up any negative stories you are never going to find any smoking gun level evidence.

Did you read the Newsweek article?

"The SARS-CoV-2 virus has some key differences in specific genes relative to previously identified coronaviruses — the ones a laboratory would be working with," said Adam Lauring, an associate professor at the University of Michigan Medical School and an expert in the evolution of viruses.

Again, there are many articles that argue either side of this. You can pick and choose quotes however you like.

That being said, you don't believe that a lab that studies novel coronaviruses could be studying a novel coronavirus? There is a history of pathogens escaping labs and there are many more wet markets in other cities in China than labs doing related research. As the simplest approximation just try applying bayes rule.

Additionally, the CCP is an authoritarian regime with a strong motive to cover things up. A refusal to even consider the possibility of a lab escape is willful ignorance.

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