I think initial concerns were the mortality rate would be much, much higher without the sometimes draconian shelter in place measures. It may be lower now because we are able to devote more intense resources (ventilators) to those who are sick. Burry seems to overlook that without implementing social distancing policies we may have had a huge surge in sick people all at once, which would have left many without access to potentially life saving equipment. Cases where a ventilator or other resources save someone and lower the overall mortality rate would have resulted in more deaths because you’ve simply got far too many sick people.

With that being said, I’m sympathetic toward the concerns about the economic cost, and think that we need to really focus on a reopen plan in May or June. Workers who can WFH should probably continue to do so, but if we’ve been able to flatten the curve it’s probably time to go back outside and see what happens.

I’ll also say with respect to Burry that although he is a trained physician, it doesn’t make him an expert in epidemiology, so, frankly, I don’t really care for his opinion on the subject any more than anyone else who is moderately educated.