That the 0.5% death rate in NYC is not higher is _because_ of the pause. We saw the death rates spike at the peak of the curve. We saw the hospitals near total collapse. We even have an example of what would happen if we didn't flatten the curve (Northern Italy). We have another counterexample of California that shows NY's pause was late.

I guess Sweden is the counter-counter example. I think the US would have needed to have built out a far different medical system to achieve what they have.

For a few days at the end of March and beginning of April, the hospitals came so, so close to collapsing. Just a few more days up the curve and we would have run out of beds. (In reality, we did run out of beds, as you can see stories of many turned away from hospitals in those dark days, but it wasn't quite a systematic collapse).

All of this happened, we were here to record it. Models are models, and we're in the early days of a deadly, virulent, confusing pandemic. But there is no doubt that our reactions and solidarity saved lives. The imperfect models helped us get there.

Now, there is a more reasonable question of where do we go from here. For urban metropolis like NYC, I think a slow re-open like Germany. We slightly open the spigit so that 20% becomes 40% becomes 60% (and hopefully immunity is immunity) and we achieve herd protection (at great cost).

And likely the less dense, the slower we'll need to go (depending on hospital saturation).

I certainly will cheer the scientists who took the best information they had at the time and worked with the leaders to make the best decisions they could. Yes, I will indeed hold them "accountable".