Yeah, this seems to be about the right direction. California as a whole (I don't have access to Bay Area data specifically) is clearly at a relatively stable peak, but the new infection rate hasn't dropped much and there's comparatively little room for error.

Other states are looking better[1]. Vermont, Alaska, Montana and Hawaii are all well below their peak infection rates and still dropping. Those are the places that should start relaxing rules earlier.

[1] Some are looking much worse, of course. Watch Nebraska in particular: their new infection rate has been growing at close to 10% per day for almost three weeks, and at that rate they'll be at a New York scale outbreak in just two more. I haven't seen any coverage of what's going on there (i.e. whether it's a specific local outbreak like the Smithfield one in SD).