Headline: “Nobel prize-winning scientist: the Covid-19 epidemic was never exponential”
TFA: “After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths)...”
TFA: “After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths)...”
I’m guessing he’s looking at modern proto-pandemics, because you only have to go back to 1918 to see exponential part of the s curve last longer than two weeks.
Wouldn’t the null hypothesis than be in these modern times, where we understand germ theory, people start naturally practicing social distancing due to fear?
Otherwise what action is slowing virus contagion?
"After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths) some kind of break kicks in, and growth starts slowing down. The curve quickly becomes “sub-exponential”."