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Comment by pizza | Hacker News Reader

Something I've been thinking about during lockdown is that, while we are for the most part staying at home when possible, if you get sick, you only have, maybe, 4 or 5 contacts to trace, on average. If we release lockdown, the number of average contacts to trace goes way way up.

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I suspect that many of the people getting infected are not observing as strict of social distancing as you imagine.

e: Why am I getting downvoted? Just conditioned on | getting infected by covid, means more likely to have had more contacts.

Without any actual data to hand I would also guess that infections would skew towards people who come into frequent contact with others as part of their job. If true, it would make taking precautions at, for example, the grocery store all the more important because those most likely to be infected are also those who you're most likely to come into contact with in turn.

You were downvoted because you stepped into a long-running and bitter ideological war: Bayesians vs frequentists.

Right you are. Learn from my mistake. Wear a mask and practice social distancing.

If you lock people up in solitary confinement they won't catch it at all. See the problem with your logic here?

There is no problem with their logic. The number of contacts does indeed go up, which is all that they said.

If we did just that for three weeks all of this would be over.

Noooo, it wouldn't be that simple. If it would be, we would all be able to eradicate several viruses..

Today for the coronavirus, tomorrow for what else?

Would be nice if we printed some trillions to eradicate smoking. It would still save more lives than corona claimed - 8 million in 2017 https://ourworldindata.org/smoking#smoking-is-one-of-the-lea...

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