My local school system is guaranteeing students that their grade will not be lower than when they closed schools. Many classes had not yet had any kind of exam, so they have 95% averages.
Universities obviously believe that any grades from the semester are now worthless and some have said so. But what are they going to do? Not accept any local students?
Every metric you might use to admit students has been tainted by this COVID business.
I think it might be problematic for T2-T3 schools and state schools that are generally lenient when accepting AP credit. As for graduate and professional schools... that's going to be a mess. Harvard Medical School will only consider COVID Pass/Fail grades if colleges make those grading schemes mandatory for students; otherwise, students will have to submit letter grades. That's (1) completely heartless and (2) an arbitrary advantage for students who went to schools where P/F is mandatory.
Honestly, the bigger issue for a lot of students at the moment is the uncertainty over the degree to which schools will open up for physical classes in the fall. What makes sense under those circumstances? And, of course, a lot of the usual gap year options aren't going to be available either.
...and I wouldn't worry about the top colleges. Having worked in admissions at one of them - a majority of the students are there due to family connections.
Andy Grove got his education at City College when it was open admission.
Missing a semester of grades isn’t going to ruin SUNY Stony Brook it whatever.
(12 Nobel Laureates graduated from City College before it went open admission, none since.)
Anecdotal, but I do remember being told that every state school in Texas is required to offer credit for every AP exam score >= 3. Doesn't have to be useful credit, mind you, but it has to be credit.