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Comment by seph-reed | Hacker News Reader

War has been highly likely imminent since Crimea, but only overwhelmingly so (imo) since Hong Kong. I strongly feel there will be war. China and Russia both are invading other countries already. The US is splitting at the seams (likely with some bot help from the two former groups).

Ever since Hong Kong, I've been extra attentive and appreciative of the fact that this may be as close to peace as we will ever see the world again.

This. Right now. This may be as close to peace as we will ever see again.

Never-the-less, I have the utmost hope for project Earth, with or without humans.

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Eh I doubt it - I think people are just anxious cause we’re all cooped up but give it a year or two and people will settle back down. Coronavirus seems to have brought out the worst of the media and the internet but the real world isn’t so different than it was.

Here's the thing... it really doesn't take much to set off a tinder box. Tensions are high, people are anxious, and there is a lot of pent up unrest. We are definitely at a potential flash point.

So yea, I sort of agree, but I definitely also think the danger is higher than it seems.

In the war that you foresee, who is fighting who?

I want you to be wrong. Your vision of present circumstances isn't what I want to come of age in. But I'm not sure I can definitively refute your claims. One thing that gives me hope is that the recent assassination of Soleimani didn't actually lead to war despite expectations that it could. I see all the problems you're talking about, and I don't think there are solutions, but I can hope that there will be and that things might change.

I don't see China and India's current problems escalating. The leadership on both sides is mature enough.

I would, however, pay very close attention to Taiwan. That just might be the trigger.

Nazi Germany taught everyone that you can’t win a war alone and I’m not sure world alliances are strong enough that we’re in a WW1 situation. Countries continue to get upsetti spaghetti over events like Crimea, killing Soleimani, and SA starting/stopping oil production but the alliances just aren't there to back up the anger.

I don't think a major war is imminent, but the other side of your argument is that the alliances aren't very strong at the moment to oppose aggression either.

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