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Comment by paulsutter | Hacker News Reader

Russia’s economy is smaller than Canada, they’re just not terribly relevant globally.

China on the other hand will eclipse the US significantly both economically and militarily, reshaping the world.

I didn't say that Russia is relevant. But they do have a "more deep" ( one-sided) partnership with China to influence Western democracy.

They were a lot stronger during the USSR and even then the call for democracy broke it up.

Europe has never been closer to Moscow. Important: Without firing even a single gunshot.

Russian economy is weak, agreed, but militarily they are still the only significant threat to US global dominance. China's military is much weaker in comparison.

China is a vastly bigger consideration. If China decides to invade Taiwan the US could lose access to most semiconductors. China’s military is developing rapidly.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-0...

If Russia were so inclined (I don't think they are and don't see why they would be) they could turn the Island of Taiwan into a pile of gravel on the floor of the China Sea. They have several thousand nuclear warheads with the means to deliver them; more than enough to overwhelm any extant ABM system.

For that reason if for no other, I think an American conflict with China is more likely than a conflict with Russia. China still has hundreds of nukes too, which is hundreds too many, but that's many times less than what Russia has.

To be clear, a direct war between any three of these countries would be a stupid, horrible idea.

There no motive for Russia to do that.

This Russia obsession is bizarre

Yes, I agree.

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