All of the uncertainty around COVID-19 means that we'll build whatever complex models we want, but then just stare blankly and wonder how the hell to choose values for various coefficients.
References? COVID-19's behavior has been quite simple so far. Exponential growth with variations. It's more predictable than the weather next week, overall.
The American curve and European curve are somewhat different, yes but the differences can be explained by the total fucked-up the American virus control efforts have been.
Oh, and the American failures were accompanied by complaints about uncertainty and how much virus control efforts would cost. Now, we will find out how much a lack of control is going to cost.